Multiple invasion trajectories induce niche dynamics inconsistency and increase risk uncertainty of a plant invader

Our knowledge of how niche dynamic patterns respond to invasion trajectories and influence risk prediction is elusive for the majority notorious invaders, hindering scientific understanding, biosecurity planning practice, management implementation biological invasions. We used Mikania micrantha, one world's worst invasive alien species (IAS), test hypothesis that multiple could induce dynamics inconsistency increase uncertainty IAS. compiled a robust database M. micrantha occurrence across its native range in Central South America invaded China. This was clarify different ranges Principal components analysis climatic variables associated with explore micrantha. Maximum entropy algorithm predict high-risk area using datasets where niches remained conservative, detect changes inclusion shifts occurred. occurred three geographically distinct regions, conservative climate southern southeastern China southwestern A spanned provinces cities expanded considerably dataset findings contribute theoretical understanding mechanisms practical optimization implementation.